paperCase Studies in Thermal Engineering2023.08.01

Real-time probabilistic backfill thermal property estimation method enabling estimation convergence judgment

Real-time probabilistic estimation of backfill thermal properties for underground transmission lines and ground heat exchangers, with a convergence test that tells the field crew when the experiment can stop.

Summary

Backfill carries heat between an underground power line or ground heat exchanger and the surrounding soil, so its thermal properties cap the system’s maximum output. On-site construction makes those properties uncertain, and long transmission lines need tests at many locations — so tests must be both in situ and short.

The method tracks how the estimated probability distribution of the thermal property changes over time and quantifies its uncertainty. By computing the Jensen–Shannon divergence between successive estimates, it judges convergence in real time, so the experiment can end as soon as the estimate has settled. It was tested on two backfill materials.

Authors

Wonjun Choi, Sangwon Lee, Ba Huu Dinh, Young-Sang Kim

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